It’s not time to stop masking

Yes, the number of new cases is going down. No, it’s not time to stop masking.

Look at the graph on the left. We were masking in November 2021, right? We should at least wait until new case numbers get below where they were when we were masking last November.

The decision of when exactly to reduce or eliminate pandemic mitigation measure should be based on a combination of reliable scientific evidence, risk management approaches informed by an understanding of social justice concerns, and yes, to an extent, public opinion. But we shouldn’t ignore the scientific evidence and social justice concerns simply because the public is tired of the pandemic.

Now look at the graph on the right. When reviewing our pandemic mitigation measures, we should also consider the fact that this virus is still killing 3,000+ people every day in the United States alone, with about 10,000 more deaths per day in other countries. Our economic and political institutions have failed to take sufficient action to stop the spread of this virus. These same institutions have also failed to care for those harmed by the pandemic and its economic, political, social, and psychological fallout.

Until the number of daily deaths drops dramatically, and until the care we provide for people harmed by the pandemic increases dramatically, this is still a crisis. We should make our mitigation decisions accordingly.

Anything we can do right now to keep new case numbers low will help bring the death rate down sooner. That includes direct interventions like masking, distancing, increasing vaccination rates, and testing. It also includes indirect interventions like providing the economic and social support necessary so that people who experience symptoms or test positive don’t feel economically or socially obligated to go to work, go to school, send their children to school sick, etc.

Keeping new case numbers as low as possible for as long as possible will decrease the death rate and total number of deaths. It will also give our medical system the weeks, months, and years (yes, years) it will need to recover from this pandemic.

So no, it’s not time to stop masking.

Our society is once again in the same delicate position that it’s been in several times now in regards to masking and other mitigation measures. Every time there’s a downward trend in numbers, we are individually and collectively faced with a similar individual and institutional challenge.

IF we continue masking and other mitigation measures until numbers are very low, and IF we take better care of those harmed by the pandemic, THEN we will be able to drop masking and some other mitigation measures in the foreseeable future. (We will surely need to continue vaccinating people against COVID-19 on an ongoing basis as we do for many other viruses.)

If we DON’T do all of those things, then the pandemic will be prolonged, the total harm it causes will increase, and we may very well have another devastating spike the next time a new variant develops or winter rolls around (or both).

Let’s make the right choices this time. Keep masking in public until the new case numbers are very low. Make testing free and readily available for everyone who wants or needs it. Keep increasing the vaccination rate, especially in regions where it’s low. And perhaps most importantly, provide institutional support to people who are suffering from the health, economic, political, social, and psychological impacts of the pandemic, with particular attention to frontline communities that were already suffering greatly before the pandemic.

Pandemics are hard. I understand why so many people want to be done with masks. I do too. But I also want to do what I can to ensure that as many people as possible make it through this pandemic with their health and lives intact. We still have some hard work ahead of us, but we can get through the rest of this pandemic if we work together.